Strategic Foresight III – “The Quiet Part”
Emergency Management Once Removed
July 12, 2024
By Jim Mullen
“Strategic foresight’s” absence was evident on January 6, 2021. Warnings signs were clearly “missed. Outnumbered, heroic police officers held the line that day, preventing a coup. Must they stand alone next time? Did we learn anything at all? Can everyone in authority be relied upon to perform and behave as the laws of the nation require?
The January 6, 2021 insurrection-rich environment’s impact was confined to the US Capitol Region. Some members of Congress, many citizens from various walks of life, and a very significant SOMEONE all seemed willing to overthrow our constitutional government. Most of the legal accountability has fallen on those who physically assaulted the Capitol; those who thus far have escaped accountability appear un-chastened by either guilt or fear of personal consequences. At least one prominent US Senate candidate has promoted the idea of “strapping on a Glock” in preparation for a disputed election in 2024. What if a governor orders the National Guard forces to support an insurrection, rather than help quell it? Or if individuals in public safety positions take it upon themselves to join in the defiance of lawful authority at centers of local or state government?
Disrespect, and even hatred for our nation’s “norms” resides in many hearts- any demagogue can tap into it, and in our nation’s history, many have tried. The real danger is the susceptibility of many of our fellow citizens to not only harbor such emotions but to act upon them.
How can we cope with the ugly truth that some among us seem willing to set aside the social compact that has bound us as a nation since its beginnings? How do we counter such views, and prepare to respond effectively? These are not unanswerable questions for emergency managers and for those who are charged with training and educating them. Strategic foresight, and some difficult but necessary introspection, might provide answers before they’re posed in real time. Those lessons need to be explored and applied. Now.
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Jim has spent 3 decades in emergency management, including 12 years at the local level as director of the City of Seattle’s Office of Emergency Management and 8 and a half years as Washington State’s Emergency Management Division Director. Jim retired from state service in March 2013. Jim also served as President of the National Emergency Management Association (NEMA) from January 2011 to October 2012. He is currently sole proprietor of “EM Northwest Consulting” based in Seattle.
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